Small arms market seen reaching $17.58 billion by 2035

The global small arms market is projected to grow from $10.96 billion in 2025 to $17.58 billion by 2035, driven by defense modernization, law enforcement upgrades and civilian demand. North America leads today, while Asia-Pacific is expected to grow fastest as countries expand domestic production and security spending.

Why it matters: - The small arms market is moving beyond legacy firearm sales toward higher-value systems tied to modernization, smart targeting and lifecycle contracts. - Demand is being supported by military procurement, police fleet upgrades and civilian self-defense purchases across major regions. - The market’s projected growth signals sustained spending on defense readiness and security infrastructure through 2035.

What happened: - Market Research Future said the global small arms market was valued at $10.96 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $17.58 billion by 2035. - The forecast implies a 4.85% compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2035. - The report covers pistols, revolvers, rifles, carbines and machine guns. - The release highlighted defense modernization, law enforcement needs and civilian demand as the main demand drivers. - Request a sample of the report.

The details: - Defense modernization and squad weapon programs were identified as the largest growth driver, with a stated impact of 22% to 26%. - Civilian concealed-carry law expansion was listed as a 16% to 20% driver, especially in North America. - Geopolitical tensions and defense spending in Europe and Asia-Pacific were estimated to contribute 14% to 18% of growth. - Domestic defense manufacturing corridors in emerging economies were assigned a 12% to 15% impact. - Law enforcement fleet modernization was cited at 8% to 11%. - Smart optics and fire-control integration were given a 7% to 10% impact. - Ammunition standardization, including NATO initiatives, was listed at 5% to 8%. - The military segment remains the largest application category, followed by law enforcement and civilian demand. - Direct government procurement is the dominant distribution channel. - North America held 37.4% of the market in 2025. - Europe accounted for 26.5% of the market. - Asia-Pacific is projected to be the fastest-growing region at a 5.78% CAGR. - South America was valued at $0.68 billion in 2025. - The Middle East and Africa held 8.1% of the market.

Between the lines: - The market is being shaped by a shift from one-time hardware sales to recurring revenue models that include weapons, ammunition, maintenance and training. - Modular platforms and networked fire-control systems create room for premium pricing and product differentiation. - Local manufacturing efforts in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa suggest more competition, more partnerships and less reliance on imports. - The report also shows how civilian demand and defense demand can rise at the same time, giving manufacturers multiple growth paths.

What's next: - More defense ministries are expected to keep replacing legacy rifles and sidearms with modular, lighter and more connected platforms. - Lifecycle-based procurement and performance contracts are likely to expand as governments seek lower logistical complexity. - Market growth should remain strongest in regions investing in domestic production, border security and counter-terrorism capabilities. - Recent activity points to continued momentum, including Heckler & Koch’s 2022 HK416 A8 contract for Germany, FN Herstal’s 2021 EVOLYS launch, India’s June 2024 approval of a $720 million rifle and carbine package, and Glock’s April 2024 factory expansion in Georgia.

The bottom line: - Small arms are no longer just a volume business. - The next decade looks increasingly tied to modernization programs, smart technology and long-term service contracts.